Sugar prices fell on Friday, with July NY world sugar #11 closing down 1.34% and August London ICE white sugar #5 down 0.58%. This decline comes amid strong export performance from Thailand, which saw a 29% year-over-year increase in sugar exports for the first four months of 2026. The International Sugar Organization’s (ISO) forecast of a record global sugar crop for the 2025/26 season, projected at 182 million metric tons, has also contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
Despite the recent price drop, concerns surrounding potential disruptions from an emerging El Niño weather pattern could provide support for sugar prices. The NOAA predicts an 82% chance of El Niño conditions developing by mid-year, which may adversely affect rainfall in key sugar-producing regions like Brazil, India, and Thailand. Additionally, India’s ongoing export ban and projections of a global sugar deficit in the 2026/27 season add further complexity to the market dynamics.
Market participants should closely monitor weather developments and export policies, as these factors could significantly impact sugar supply and pricing trends in the coming months.
Source: nasdaq.com