Coffee prices continued their downward trend on Monday, with July arabica closing down 1.01% and July robusta falling 1.75%. This decline follows significant losses from the previous week, driven largely by expectations of a substantial increase in Brazil’s coffee production. Projections indicate Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest could reach up to 75.9 million bags, a 15.5% year-over-year increase, contributing to a forecasted global coffee surplus of 10 million bags.
The bearish sentiment in the coffee market is compounded by rising exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, which reported a 15.8% year-over-year increase in coffee exports for early 2026. Meanwhile, while ICE coffee inventories have decreased, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is tightening global supplies and increasing costs for importers, adding a layer of complexity to the market dynamics.
Market professionals should monitor the interplay between supply forecasts and geopolitical factors, as these will significantly influence coffee pricing trends in the near term.
Source: nasdaq.com