Oil prices remain elevated, with Brent and WTI hovering around $100 per barrel, driven by ongoing supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a slight pullback after three days of gains, market sentiment remains tense as investors await clarity on the fragile ceasefire and the upcoming Trump–Xi summit. The latest EIA forecasts indicate a deeper supply shock, projecting that Middle Eastern oil supply losses could peak at 10.8 million barrels per day this month, significantly impacting global inventories.
The EIA now expects global oil demand growth to slow to just 200,000 barrels per day this year, down from 600,000, as high prices lead to demand destruction and broader inflation concerns. This shift complicates the economic outlook for consumers and central banks alike, especially as elevated fuel costs contribute to persistent inflationary pressures.
Market professionals should monitor the potential for further price volatility; if disruptions continue beyond May, oil prices could surge by an additional $20 per barrel, amplifying inflation risks and impacting broader economic conditions.
Source: xtb.com