Coffee prices surged today, with July arabica coffee rising 2.55% and July robusta coffee climbing 2.96%. The spike is largely driven by tightening inventories, as ICE arabica stocks have dropped to a 2.5-month low and robusta inventories have reached a 16.75-month low. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is exacerbating supply disruptions, leading to increased shipping costs and higher expenses for importers and roasters.
While current conditions are bullish for coffee prices, the landscape is complicated by robust export growth from Vietnam, the world’s leading robusta producer, which reported a 15.8% year-on-year increase in exports for early 2026. Additionally, expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop may weigh on prices, with projections indicating a 12% year-on-year increase in Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest.
Market professionals should monitor these developments closely, as the interplay between tightening global supplies and increased production in key exporting countries could create significant volatility in coffee prices moving forward.
Source: nasdaq.com