Coffee prices displayed mixed results on Friday, with July arabica coffee (KCN26) rising by 0.57% while July ICE robusta coffee (RMN26) fell by 0.52%. The divergence in performance can be attributed to tightening inventories; arabica stocks have dipped to a 2.5-month low, and robusta inventories are at a 16.5-month low. Disruptions in global coffee supplies due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz have further supported arabica prices by inflating shipping and import costs.
However, robusta prices face bearish pressure from soaring exports out of Vietnam, which reported a 15.8% year-over-year increase in coffee exports for early 2026. Additionally, expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop could exacerbate the supply situation, with projections indicating an increase of up to 12% year-over-year for the 2026/27 harvest.
Market professionals should closely monitor these developments, as the balance between tightening arabica supplies and increasing robusta production could create volatility in coffee pricing dynamics moving forward.
Source: nasdaq.com