Bitcoin’s recent rebound has shown a longer duration and greater percentage range compared to previous recoveries, yet the market remains cautious as it approaches the critical $80k resistance level. The 200 EMA at $82–83k is a significant barrier, and on-chain data indicates that short-term holders are capitalizing on profits as prices near this threshold, with realized profits spiking to about $4 million per hour—four times the average since mid-April.
As volatility declines, the demand for downside protection has also decreased, with the 25 Delta Skew showing a drop in put premiums. However, as Bitcoin nears the $80k mark, interest in puts has resurfaced, pushing the skew back to 11-12%. This suggests that while the market is tactically positioned, it remains wary of potential resistance.
The key takeaway for market professionals is that a sustained break above $80k could trigger significant buying activity, particularly in a low-liquidity environment, potentially amplifying upward price movements as dealers adjust their positions.
Source: xtb.com