Coffee prices saw a notable uptick on Tuesday, with July arabica coffee rising by 0.76% and July robusta coffee increasing by 1.55%. This movement is largely attributed to declining inventories, which have reached a two-month low of 494,508 bags for arabica coffee. The situation is further complicated by geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing US-Iran conflict, which threatens to disrupt global coffee supply chains by increasing shipping costs and impacting fertilizer and fuel prices.
The tightening of coffee supplies is underscored by reduced exports from Brazil, which reported a significant year-over-year decline in March coffee exports. In contrast, robusta coffee prices are being pressured by soaring exports from Vietnam, the leading robusta producer, which has seen a 14% increase in exports for the early part of 2026.
Market professionals should note that while current conditions favor higher arabica prices due to supply constraints, robusta prices may face downward pressure from increased Vietnamese exports. This dynamic could influence trading strategies in the coffee market moving forward.
Source: nasdaq.com