Coffee prices rallied on Monday, with May arabica coffee (KCK26) up 1.00% and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK26) rising 2.77%. The surge follows Iran’s announcement of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, which has escalated global shipping costs and tightened coffee supplies. Additionally, robusta inventories have dipped to a 16-month low, further supporting price increases amid concerns over supply constraints.
Despite the upward momentum, expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop in 2026/27—projected at 75.9 million bags—are capping significant price gains. The International Coffee Organization also noted a slight year-over-year decline in global coffee exports, which could temper market enthusiasm. Meanwhile, robusta prices face bearish pressure from soaring exports out of Vietnam, which reported a 14% increase in early 2026 exports.
Market professionals should closely monitor these dynamics, as the interplay between supply constraints and production forecasts will significantly influence coffee pricing trends in the near term.
Source: nasdaq.com