U.S. lawmakers have introduced the MATCH Act, a significant piece of legislation that could dramatically impact ASML Holding’s (ASML) revenue from China. Unlike previous export restrictions targeting advanced EUV lithography machines, this bill aims to ban the export and servicing of older DUV immersion lithography systems, which Chinese chipmakers rely on. This legislation not only closes existing loopholes but also jeopardizes the functionality of ASML’s installed equipment in China, potentially diminishing the value of the Chinese semiconductor market for ASML.
ASML’s Chinese market represented 33% of its total revenue in 2025, but the MATCH Act could further compress this figure from an anticipated 20% in 2026. While the company’s long-term growth trajectory remains intact, with strong global demand for advanced chips, the immediate outlook for Chinese revenue is increasingly bleak.
For investors, this development signals a need to reassess assumptions about ASML’s revenue streams. The potential decline in Chinese business could prompt a reevaluation of the stock’s attractiveness, especially for those who previously viewed it as a stable investment.
Source: fool.com