Coffee prices experienced a significant decline on Friday, with May arabica closing down 2.41% and robusta down 2.48%. The drop in prices follows Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, alleviating global supply concerns. This comes amid expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop, with projections from Marex Group and StoneX estimating production could reach up to 75.9 million bags for the 2026/27 season.
The bearish sentiment in the coffee market is further supported by rising robusta exports from Vietnam, which reported a 14% year-over-year increase in early 2026 exports. Meanwhile, tighter supplies from Brazil, where coffee exports have also fallen significantly, could provide some price support. However, the overall outlook remains cautious as the International Coffee Organization noted a slight decline in global coffee exports for the current marketing year.
Market professionals should closely monitor the evolving supply dynamics, particularly the impact of weather conditions in Brazil and export trends from Vietnam, as these factors will likely influence coffee pricing in the near term.
Source: nasdaq.com