Coffee prices experienced a slight decline on Thursday, with May arabica down 0.12% and May robusta down 0.54%. This dip follows a consolidation of recent losses, influenced by a strong Brazilian real, which reached a 23-month high against the dollar, discouraging export sales from Brazil’s coffee producers. Expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop have also weighed on prices, with projections indicating a 15.5% year-on-year increase for the 2026/27 season.
The market’s outlook is further complicated by rising inventories, particularly for arabica, which hit a 6.25-month high. In contrast, robusta inventories fell to a 1.25-year low, indicating tightness in supply that may support robusta prices. However, the overall bearish sentiment is bolstered by soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, which reported a 14% year-on-year increase for early 2026.
Market professionals should note that while the Brazilian crop outlook remains strong, the interplay of rising inventories and export dynamics from Vietnam could lead to continued price volatility in both arabica and robusta markets.
Source: nasdaq.com