Coffee prices fell on Thursday, with May arabica down 0.81% and May robusta down 2.07%, largely due to a stronger U.S. dollar and expectations of a record Brazilian coffee crop. Marex Group Plc forecasts Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production at 75.9 million bags, up 15.5% year-over-year, surpassing previous estimates. While tightness in robusta supplies supports its prices, rising arabica inventories have pressured the market, with ICE arabica stocks reaching a 6.25-month high.
The broader implications for the coffee market are significant. The anticipated increase in Brazilian production, coupled with the ongoing disruption in global shipping routes due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, adds complexity to supply dynamics. Recent data shows a sharp decline in Brazil’s coffee exports, which may temporarily support prices despite the bearish production outlook.
For market professionals, the key takeaway is to monitor the evolving supply landscape, particularly the impact of Brazilian production forecasts and global shipping costs on coffee pricing strategies.
Source: nasdaq.com