Bitcoin’s bear market shows signs of maturing, with long-term holders now controlling approximately 80% of the supply, nearing the historical 85% threshold typically seen at bear market bottoms. Currently trading below $66,000, Bitcoin has experienced a nearly six-month downturn, down over 45% from its October peak. The market is now grappling with “time pain,” a period of extended consolidation that tests investor patience, as evidenced by the Realized Cap HODL Waves metric from Glassnode.
This prolonged sideways trading could delay a sustained recovery, as historical patterns indicate that price bottoms often precede the accumulation of long-term holders. If the trend continues, the market may be approaching a bottoming phase; however, several months of range-bound trading are likely before any significant upward movement occurs.
For market professionals, the key takeaway is to prepare for continued volatility and consolidation in Bitcoin, as the current market structure remains fragile, particularly with heavy demand for downside protection in options markets.
Source: coindesk.com