The latest EIA report reveals a surprising bearish trend for crude oil, reporting a significant build of 5.451 million barrels, marking the second consecutive increase despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This increase in crude supply contrasts with the rapid drawdowns in gasoline and distillate stocks, which fell by 2.593 million and 1.032 million barrels, respectively, indicating sustained demand for refined products.

This divergence in supply dynamics is critical for market participants, as it suggests that while crude inventories are rising, the demand for refined fuels remains robust. The market’s focus is further complicated by speculation surrounding potential policy shifts from former President Trump regarding Iran, which could impact the geopolitical premium currently supporting oil prices.

For traders and analysts, the key takeaway is the potential for a price correction toward the $75–$80 range if geopolitical tensions ease and the crude surplus continues to grow. Investors should remain vigilant, as upcoming comments from Trump could trigger significant market movements.

Source: xtb.com