Sugar prices experienced a dip on Friday, with May NY world sugar #11 closing down 0.69% and May London ICE white sugar #5 down 0.22%. This decline is largely attributed to increased sugar production in Brazil, where mills are prioritizing sugar output over ethanol, resulting in a year-over-year rise of 0.7% in cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season.
The market dynamics are shifting as Brazil’s sugar mills are expected to produce a record 44.7 million metric tons, while India’s output is projected to rise significantly as well, potentially leading to a global sugar surplus. Analysts predict a surplus of 3.4 million metric tons in the 2026/27 crop year, which could further pressure sugar prices. Additionally, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted about 6% of the global sugar trade, providing some short-term support.
Market professionals should closely monitor the evolving production forecasts and export dynamics, particularly from India, as these factors could significantly influence sugar pricing trends and trading strategies in the coming months.
Source: nasdaq.com