The European Central Bank (ECB) released its Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for February 2026, revealing stable inflation perceptions and slightly declining expectations for inflation over the next year and three years. Notably, median inflation expectations fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, while perceptions of inflation over the past year remained unchanged at 3.0%. This survey was conducted prior to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which may influence future consumer sentiment and economic outlook.
The survey indicates a cautious optimism among consumers regarding economic growth, with expectations improving slightly from -1.1% to -0.9%. Additionally, anticipated unemployment rates decreased, suggesting a stable labor market. However, lower-income households continue to express higher inflation and unemployment expectations compared to their higher-income counterparts, highlighting ongoing disparities in economic outlook.
Market professionals should note that these consumer expectations could influence ECB policy decisions, particularly in light of the recent geopolitical tensions. The stability in inflation and economic growth expectations may provide a buffer against market volatility in the near term, but the evolving landscape warrants close monitoring.
Source: ecb.europa.eu