Nasdaq 100 (US100) futures are trading lower ahead of the US market opening, primarily due to a sharp rebound in oil prices, which have surged back to $98 per barrel after dipping to $91. The index has fallen below 24,000 points, while US 10-year Treasury yields hover around 5%. With retail investor participation in equity purchases plummeting to 8%, the lowest since Q3 2024, market sentiment is increasingly risk-averse, reflecting levels seen during previous bear markets.
The geopolitical landscape further complicates matters, as tensions between the US and Iran escalate, with potential military involvement looming. The technical outlook for US100 is deteriorating; if it fails to reclaim the 200-session EMA at 24,500 points, selling pressure could intensify, potentially dragging the index down to 23,000.
For market professionals, the key takeaway is the heightened volatility driven by both oil price movements and geopolitical tensions, necessitating a cautious approach to risk management and portfolio positioning.
Source: xtb.com