Brent crude oil prices are experiencing heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions escalate, particularly following Donald Trump’s five-day ultimatum for negotiations with Iran amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes. Despite a recent sharp decline of nearly 10%, Brent has managed to hold above the critical $95 support level, maintaining its broader uptrend into 2026.

The market is currently navigating a complex landscape, where backwardation indicates tight supply conditions. However, a potential drop of $1–2 in calendar spreads could signal a significant trend reversal. The dynamics mirror previous trade negotiations, with the risk that optimism surrounding de-escalation may be misplaced, as hardline factions within Iran remain opposed to peace talks.

For market professionals, the key takeaway is the importance of monitoring the $95 support level and calendar spreads closely. A sustained breach of these technical indicators could foreshadow a deeper decline in oil prices, while ongoing geopolitical developments will likely continue to drive volatility in the sector.

Source: xtb.com