Coffee prices fell on Monday, with May arabica coffee down 0.89% and May robusta coffee down 0.74%, primarily due to favorable growing conditions in Brazil. Climatempo reported beneficial soil moisture and dry conditions that are aiding cherry ripening, with rain expected to return to key coffee-growing regions this week. This comes after a brief rally driven by disruptions in global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which had previously tightened coffee supplies.
The bearish outlook for coffee prices is reinforced by increased production forecasts, with StoneX raising Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production estimate to a record 75.3 million bags. Additionally, rising ICE inventories for arabica, now at a 5.75-month high, and a significant drop in Brazil’s green coffee exports in February further pressure prices. The combination of abundant rainfall in Brazil and soaring exports from Vietnam, the leading robusta producer, adds to the downward momentum.
Market participants should closely monitor Brazil’s weather patterns and production forecasts, as these factors are likely to dictate coffee price trends in the near term.
Source: nasdaq.com